| NOTE FROM THE newsroom |
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Dear readers,
Four days from now, German voters will set the scene for climate and energy policy for the coming for years when they cast their vote in federal parliament elections. For the CLEW newsroom, this will be the culmination of a very intense period. Since the collapse of the previous coalition government around three months ago, we have not only tracked the unfolding election campaign closely for you, but also trawled through party manifestos, analysed the energy transition’s state of play in key sectors, and interviewed many specialists about the future government’s to-do list and the successes and failures of the outgoing government.
In this special edition of our daily newsletter, we present the highlights of our coverage, so you can catch up with what really matters.
We have always billed this election as crucial for reaching Germany’s 2030 climate targets. But since the coalition break-up on 6 November – the very day Donald Trump won the U.S. election – the upcoming ballot has gained a whole new level of international significance. The ongoing shake-up of geopolitics pushes energy and climate policies further into the realm of security and competitiveness. Many in the EU demand action from the bloc’s largest economy in turbulent times.
CLEW will continue to keep you in the loop – starting on election night, when we will publish a first analysis on what the results signal for Germany’s future energy and climate policy.
Best regards, |
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| in this newsletter |
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The ins and outs of the election campaign
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What's next for Germany's...
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| The election campaign |
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This is an overview of energy and climate policy positions from key parties, taken from their final election programmes.
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This article tracks the latest developments on the road to a new government.
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Websites and polling agencies
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- Bundeswahlleiter.de
The latest official information on the elections can be found on the English language website of the Federal Returning Officer. The site offers an election glossary, explaining terms like "overhang mandates", "Sainte-Laguë/Schepers", and "proportional representation". After the elections, the website will present the official results.
- Wahlrecht.de
A group of students established poll tracking website Wahlrecht.de as an independent, non-party, non-commercial website on election topics, electoral systems, the right to vote and opinion polls for federal and state elections. Parts of the site are in English, but most information is available only in German. Here you can find a list of the latest poll results by Germany’s large polling agencies.
- pollytix strategic research
pollytix offers a visualisation of trends in Germans’ party preferences in opinion polls, and a coalition calculator.
- Polling agencies
forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, infratest dimap, INSA-CONSULERE, Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach (IfD), Kantar Emnid, YouGov
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The conservative CDU leader Friedrich Merz is widely tipped to become Germany’s next chancellor – but remains ambiguous on a range of policy fields, notably on energy and climate.
Despite being known as a senior policymaker for decades, Merz’s long stint in the private sector not only sets him apart from previous chancellor candidates but also raises a range of questions regarding his priorities as head of government.
Many voters regard Merz’s experience in the corporate world as an asset during a difficult time for the German economy. Others are worried that climate action could slide down on the agenda, as the conservative leader seeks to distance himself from the previous centre-left government and its decarbonisation focus. But many industry leaders still are in the dark what Merz plans to do on energy and climate instead.
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The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) – the second strongest polling party ahead of Germany's snap elections on 23 February – is the only major party to outright reject the scientific consensus behind human-induced climate change.
The AfD will likely remain in opposition for the coming term, yet the party's growing strength has influenced the electoral campaign through agenda-setting, says political scientist Manès Weisskircher.
While some of their anti-climate protection messages have found support in the wider population, their fundamental criticism of climate action relies on exaggerated claims and leaves nuance out of complicated policy decisions, the researcher who focuses on far-right politics and climate protection at TU Dresden told Clean Energy Wire.
Still, a growing support base means other mainstream parties might turn quieter on their climate ambition, Weisskircher warned.
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| wHat's next for germany's... |
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In this series of analyses, we took stock of the state of play in the green transition across economic sectors.
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The early end of Olaf Scholz’s coalition government follows a three-year term marked by crises and a deep internal dispute over funding for future climate and energy policies. Despite its noisy demise, the chancellor’s three-party alliance has made significant progress in key policy areas, such as renewables expansion. But the many funding questions and policy loose ends left behind by the coalition’s collapse will not make the job easier for a new government after the election in February 2025. It faces economic woes, security challenges and mounting costs that could challenge the acceptance of climate policies.
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As Germans prepare to head to the polls, the weakness of the country’s large industrial base has become a campaign focus. Some opposition policymakers blame exaggerated climate policies for the troubles at sector giants like VW and many energy-intensive companies. But most experts and businesses agree that the new government must push forward industry decarbonisation despite tight budgets in close cooperation with the EU. A delay would only put long-term competitiveness in future markets at risk, they warn.
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Germany’s next government will inherit a major policy predicament: How can it finally initiate serious transport emission cuts against a backdrop of tight finances, a struggling car industry, and a crumbling transport infrastructure? After years of foot-dragging under previous governments, the mobility sector is lagging far behind in the country’s landmark energy transition, meaning major policy shifts are required as 2030 climate targets move into view.
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Making German homes less climate-damaging and keeping them affordable for residents at the same time will be a central task for the country's next government. The heated controversy over a phaseout law for oil and gas boilers is still fresh on people's minds, and populist parties have successfully capitalised on anxious voters' concerns that they won't be able to afford the transition to a cleaner future. However, cutting heating emissions has become urgent - Germany is already set to miss the corresponding 2030 climate targets as it continues to rely on fossil fuel boilers, while energy-saving renovations proceed at a glacial pace.
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As the new U.S. administration under president Donald Trump upends decades of transatlantic relations and the wider geopolitical order, Germany faces the challenging task of resetting relations with its neighbours to ensure a strong EU role in the world. Increasingly taking control of its own defence, helping to tackle global climate change, and ensuring energy security all require an assertive next government. The conservatives are likely to lead the next pro-European coalition that supports the European Green Deal in general, but could try to weaken certain elements in an effort to ensure competitiveness of German businesses, experts say.
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Germany's outgoing government made important moves to protect the country against the worsening effects of climate change. Notably, it introduced the first legally-binding climate adaptation law and presented a strategy to protect people and infrastructure against increasingly severe weather events. However, Germany's next government still has to overcome key challenges like funding and knowledge gaps to implement measures at a local level.
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| expert views |
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In this series of interviews, key actors from industry, research, and civil society in the German climate and energy debate break down their expectations regarding the vote, as well as other important topics coming up in 2025.
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| What happens Next? |
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Under normal circumstances, Germans elect a new parliament every four years, and the requirements to initiate an early election are high.
A government is formed after the new federal parliament decides on a chancellor, but the laborious process to negotiate a coalition can last for months after an election.
This factsheet provides a brief overview of this process.
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